Cinquantamila.it La storia raccontata da Giorgio Dell'Arti

La cocaina nel rapporto 2013 dell’Unodc (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) - World Drugs Report 2013

Cocaine seizures in Colombia indicate that the Atlantic route may be gaining in prominence as compared with the Pacific route in maritime trafficking; linguistic ties appear to play a role in cocaine trafficking from South America o Europe via Brazil, Portugal and lusophone countries in Africa. The cocaine market seems to be expanding towards the emerging economies in Asia.
Cocaine
The global area under coca cultivation amounted to 155,600 ha in 2011, almost unchanged from a year earlier but 14 per cent lower than in 2007 and 30 per cent less than in 2000. Estimates of the amounts of cocaine manu- factured, expressed in quantities of 100 per cent pure cocaine, ranged from 776 to 1,051 tons in 2011, largely unchanged from a year earlier. The world’s largest cocaine seizures (not adjusted for purity) continue to be reported from Colombia (200 tons) and the United States (94 tons). However, there has been an indication in recent years that the cocaine market has been shifting to several regions which have not been associated previously with either trafficking or use. Significant increases have been noted in Asia, Oceania and Central and South America and the Carib- bean. In Central America, intensified competition in traf- ficking of cocaine has led to growing levels of violence.
Cocaine has long been perceived as a drug for the affluent. There is some evidence which, though inconclusive, suggests that this perception may not be entirely ground- less, all other factors being equal. Nonetheless, the extent of its use is not always led by the wallet. There are examples of wealthy countries with low prevalence rates, and vice-versa.
Arguably, parts of East and South-East Asia run a higher risk of expansion of cocaine use (although from very low levels). Seizures in Hong Kong, China, rose dramatically, to almost 600 kg in 2010, and had exceeded 800 kg by 2011. This can be attributed to several factors, often linked to the glamour associated with its use and the emergence of more affluent sections of society. In the case of Latin America, in contrast, most of the increase appears to be linked to “spill-over” effects, as cocaine is widely available and relatively cheap owing to the proximity to producing countries.
In North America, seizures and prevalence have declined considerably since 2006 (with the exception of a rebound in seizures in 2011). Between 2006 and 2011, cocaine use among the general population in the United States fell by 40 per cent, which is partly linked to less production in Colombia, law enforcement intervention and inter-cartel violence.
While, earlier, North America and Central/Western Europe dominated the cocaine market, today they account for approximately one half of users globally, a reflection of the fact that use seems to have stabilized in Europe and declined in North America.
In Oceania, on the other hand, cocaine seizures reached new highs in 2010 and 2011 (1.9 and 1.8 tons, respec- tively, up from 290 kg in 2009). The annual prevalence rate for cocaine use in Australia for the population aged 14 years or older more than doubled from 1.0 per cent in 2004 to 2.1 per cent of the adult population in 2010; that figure is higher than the European average and exceeds the corresponding prevalence rates in the United States.
Extent of drug use
In 2011, between 167 and 315 million people aged 15–64 were estimated to have used an illicit substance in the pre- ceding year. This corresponds to between 3.6 and 6.9 per cent of the adult population. The prevalence of illicit drug use and the numbers of problem drug users — those with drug use disorders or dependence – have remained stable.1 Since 2009, the prevalence of cannabis, opioids, and opi- ates use has gone up, while the prevalence of use of cocaine, amphetamine-type stimulants and “ecstasy”-group sub- stances appears to have followed a declining trend between 2009 and 2011.2 Nevertheless, since 2008 there has been an overall 18 per cent increase in the estimated total number of people who had used an illicit substance in the preceding year, which to some extent reflects both an increase in the global population and a slight increase in the prevalence of illicit drug use. A series of maps are pre- sented in Annex I showing the prevalence of drug use among the population aged 15-64 for cannabis, ampheta- mies, opioids, opiates, cocaine and ecstasy. In addition, a table is included providing estimates of the prevalence and total number of users for each drug type at the global, regional and subregional levels.
Cocaine
The two major markets for cocaine, North America and Western and Central Europe, registered a decrease in cocaine use between 2010 and 2011, with annual preva- lence among the adult population in Western and Central Europe decreasing from 1.3 per cent in 2010 to 1.2 per cent in 2011, and from 1.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent in North America. While cocaine use in many South Ameri- can countries has decreased or remained stable, there has been a substantial increase in Brazil that is obvious enough to be reflected in the regional prevalence rate for 2011. Australia has also reported an increase in cocaine use.
Africa
Africa remains a region with minimal systematic informa- tion available on either the extent of or patterns or trends related to drug use. Nevertheless, estimates from Africa indicate a high prevalence of cannabis use (7.5 per cent, or nearly double the global average), which is particularly high in West Africa. The use of ATS (0.9 per cent), cocaine (0.4 per cent) and opiates (0.3 per cent) remains compa- rable with the global average.
The use of opioids is perceived to be increasing signifi- cantly in Africa, with experts in the region also reporting an increase. Many countries also reported an increase in use of cannabis, ATS and cocaine in 2011. Cocaine use in particular is perceived to be increasing in the Western coastal countries and is considered to be linked with the trafficking of cocaine into and through the region. A recent study in the Dakar region of Senegal indicated that, while heroin use had declined since 2000, consumption of crack cocaine had increased, and that currently between 70 per cent and 80 per cent of crack users were also using hero- in.21 Similarly, heroin trafficking through the coastal regions of East Africa is believed to have caused an increase in heroin and injecting drug use. In a behavioural surveil- lance study among people who inject drugs in Seychelles, heroin was the most commonly injected substance; other substances commonly used by injectors included cannabis and alcohol.22 In Kenya, heroin was the primary drug used by people who inject drugs, while polydrug use of cannabis nabis and ATS was reported as stable, while the use of cocaine and opiates had increased.

In Brazil, a cross-sectional study of 3,398 drivers found that 4.6 per cent of them tested positive for some illicit substance. Of those who tested positive, 39 per cent tested positive for cocaine, 32 per cent for tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) (can- nabis), 16 per cent for amphetamines and 14 per cent for benzodiazepines. In another study in Brazil, drug testing on patients who were admitted to the emergency room after traffic accidents showed that such patients were more likely to have cannabis in their system than alcohol.
In Europe, in a sample of 50,000 randomly tested drivers from 13 countries, approximately 1.9 per cent of drivers tested positive for an illicit substance: traces of THC were detected in 1.3 per cent, cocaine in 0.4 per cent, amphetamines in 0.08 per cent and illicit opioids in 0.07 per cent. Additionally, benzodiazepines were found in 0.9 per cent and medical opioids among 0.35 per cent of European drivers. Among the general driving population, illicit drugs were detected mainly among young male drivers, and at all times of the day, but mostly at the weekends.
North America
Similarly, a decline was observed in the use of inhalants, cocaine, pre- scription painkillers, amphetamine and tranquillizers among high-school students.
For Mexico, new estimates for 2011, as well as expert per- ception, indicate a slight increase since 2008 in the use of cocaine (from 0.4 per cent in 2008 to 0.5 per cent in 2011) and ATS (0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent).
The annual prevalence of cocaine use in South America (1.3 per cent of the adult population) is comparable to levels in North America, while it remains much higher than the global average in Central America (0.6 per cent) and the Caribbean (0.7 per cent).
Cocaine use has increased significantly in Brazil, Costa Rica and, to lesser extent, Peru while no change in its use was reported in Argentina.
Reliable estimates of the prevalence of different drugs are available for only a few countries in Asia. Overall, drug use in the region remains at low levels. While the annual preva- lence rate of use of ATS ranges between 0.2 and 1.2 per cent of the adult population, and that of opioids between 0.3 and 0.5 per cent, the annual prevalence rates for the use of cannabis (1.0–3.1 per cent), “ecstasy” (0.1–0.7 per cent) and cocaine (0.05 per cent) are considerably lower than the global average. In absolute numbers, however, Asia is home to an estimated one quarter to 40 per cent of all illicit drug users worldwide, as well as 60 per cent of opiate users and between 30 and 60 per cent of ATS users.
Recent data available from Pakistan and China indicate an increase in the use of opiates, as well as of ATS. A new survey on drug use, conducted in Pakistan in 2012, reported cannabis as the most commonly used drug, with an annual prevalence of 3.6 per cent, followed by prescrip- tion opioids (1.5 per cent) and tranquillizers and sedatives (1.4 per cent). Opiate use (0.9 per cent), though high, remained at levels lower than in Afghanistan and Iran (Islamic Republic of). Most of the opiate use was linked to heroin (0.7 per cent) and, to a lesser extent, opium (0.3 per cent). Use of ATS (0.1 per cent) and cocaine (0.01 per cent) appeared to be low but emerging.
The annual prevalence of cocaine use (1.2 per cent) in Western and Central Europe is nearly three times the global average, but has been reported as showing a stabiliz- ing or downward trend. Countries with a high prevalence of cocaine use observed a decline or stabilization in its use compared with the previous survey.
The latest school survey of 15- and 16-year-olds in the European Union also indicates evidence of a reduction or stabilization in the use of all major substances. However, polydrug use among school students remains of concern, with nearly 9 per cent of students reporting use of two or more substances. Cannabis use has remained stable overall among school students in Europe since 2007 (17 per cent lifetime prevalence); its use has increased significantly in 11 countries and declined in 5 others. The Czech Repub- lic, France and Monaco are the only European countries with a higher lifetime prevalence of cannabis use among 15- and 16-year-olds (42 per cent, 37 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively) than the United States (35 per cent).
Overall, in Western and Central Europe, the prevalence of use of “ecstasy” and ATS has remained stable (0.8 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively). While methamphetamine use was previously limited to only the Czech Republic and Slovakia, sporadic reports of methamphetamine smoking and availability of crystal methamphetamine have been reported, notably in the Baltic States and northern Europe, while low levels of use and availability for these substances were also reported from the United Kingdom and Germany.
While over 1 million people are currently estimated to have used opioids — in particular, by injecting heroin — there are signs of a decline in its use, with 60 per cent (710,000) of estimated problem opioid users currently receiving sub- stitution and maintenance therapy. Also, injecting practices are on the decline among new heroin users: only one third (36 per cent) of those entering treatment for heroin-related problems reported injecting as the main method of use.
Indicators from some European Union member States also show that heroin has become less available in recent years, and that in some countries it has been replaced by sub- stances such as fentanyl and buprenorphine. This has been the situation mostly in Estonia and Finland, with sporadic or low levels of activities related to fentanyl use reported from countries such as Greece, Italy and the United King- dom.33 In Estonia, the annual prevalence of fentanyl use in 2008 was reported as 0.1 per cent, while it was 1.1 per cent among males aged 15-24. Among drug users regis- tered in treatment, three quarters (76 per cent) were there for fentanyl use. Fentanyl has also been described as endemic among people who inject drugs in Estonia.34
There is limited data on fentanyl use in other European countries, but there have been time-limited “outbreaks” of the injection of fentanyl in Bulgaria and Slovakia. Similarly, Finland, Germany and Sweden have reported localized increases in the use of fentanyl and fentanyl-related deaths in recent years.35
The number of people using substances such as gamma- hydroxybutyric acid (GHB), gamma-butyrolactone (GBL), ketamine and, more recently, mephedrone is still relatively low in most European countries, but high levels of use are found in some subpopulations (such as “clubbers”), and it appears that such substances have the potential for more widespread diffusion. A European survey of youth attitudes, in which more than 12,000 young people aged 15-24 were interviewed, estimated that 5 per cent of the respondents had used at least one new psychoactive sub- stance at some point.36 There have also been reports of health problems linked with these substances, including dependence among chronic users, and some unexpected conditions, such as bladder disease and urinary tract symp- toms in ketamine users.37,38
Eastern and South-Eastern Europe
Except for the prevalence of opioid use (usually heroin), which is estimated to be 1.2 per cent of the adult popula- tion, the use of other illicit substances in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe is quite low compared with global levels. While there is limited new information from the subregion, Belarus has reported an increase in opioid use, with 68 per cent of opioid users injecting mostly locally made preparations of opium such as “kompot” or “cherniashka”,39 and recent trends in the country indicate an increase in the number of people injecting, as well as in the number of injecting practices, and HIV prevalence among those who inject drugs.40
In the Russian Federation, decreased availability of heroin has led to its partial replacement with local and readily available substances such as acetylated opium, as in Bela- rus, and with desomorphine, a homemade preparation made from over-the-counter preparations containing codeine.41
Countries with a high prevalence of cocaine use observed a decline or stabilization in its use compared with the previous survey.
Ats = Amphetamine-type stimulant

There are indications of new markets for cocaine, although the available data indicates an overall decline in the market for cocaine at the global level.

Cocaine
The available global indicators for the cocaine market sug- gest that, at a global level, the availability of cocaine has declined, or at least stabilized, in recent years. In contrast with the market for other drugs, the cocaine market is characterized by the fact that not only are the source coun- tries circumscribed within a relatively small area in South America, but also, until recently, cocaine consumption has been concentrated in specific parts of the globe. Hence, it is plausible that trafficking patterns converged to create certain distinct patterns and routes which were best suited to supply those limited consumer markets.
Consequently, with respect to cocaine specifically, the attention of the global community and the efforts to reduce and measure drug supply and demand may have focused on these well-known routes and markets. More recently, there are indications of emerging cocaine consumption in countries previously not associated with this phenomenon, and it cannot be excluded that the available indicators do not yet fully reflect the extent of global cocaine demand and supply.
In any case, it is clear that regions like Asia and Africa, which together account for the majority of the world’s population, and where cocaine use has until recently been relatively low and continues to be largely limited to certain subregions, harbour the potential for a significant demand- driven expansion of the cocaine market.
E. COCAINE MARKET
Global trends in the main supply indicators
Most indicators, including cultivation of coca bush, manu- facture of cocaine, seizures of cocaine and prevalence esti- mates in the major consumer countries, suggest that in recent years the cocaine market has, on the whole, been declining. This finding primarily reflects the situation in North America, where the cocaine market declined signifi- cantly over the period 2006-2012, and, to a lesser extent, in Western and Central Europe, where the cocaine market appears to have stabilized following many years of growth.
In contrast, over the past decade the prevalence of cocaine use appears to have increased in several regions with large populations, notably South America, but also, to a lesser extent, Africa and Asia. Globally, this has resulted in a shift in the demand for cocaine. Moreover, several regions not previously associated with large-scale use of or trafficking in cocaine have shown signs of emerging as markets for cocaine. There is no certainty that cocaine use will remain concentrated in the Americas, Europe and Oceania. In Africa and Asia, which account for the majority of the world’s population, the prevalence rate of cocaine use, while still low, holds the potential to grow. In the long term, the growth in global population maybe a major driv- ing force in setting the trend for global demand.
Cultivation, production and manufacture of cocaine
Global illicit cultivation of coca bush in 2011 remained at around the same level as in 2010. Despite the uncertainty in estimates of cocaine manufacture, the same can be assumed for global cocaine manufacture. An overview of global illicit cultivation of coca bush, potential production of coca leaf and potential manufacture of cocaine can be found in Annex II.
After several years of increases since 2005, the Plurinational State of Bolivia saw a decrease in coca bush cultivation of 12 per cent in 2011. The decrease took place in all three growing areas (the Yungas of La Paz, the Cochabamba Tropics (Chapare) and Apolo) and was attributed to efforts by the Government to eradicate coca bushes, specifically in national parks and other areas where the Government prohibits coca bush cultivation, and to achieve a reduction of such cultivation through so-called rationalization − a voluntary reduction negotiated with coca farmers in areas where national laws allow and regulate coca bush cultivation.
Colombia and Peru, on the other hand, experienced small increases in the area under coca bush cultivation. However, the small nominal increase in area in Colombia should be interpreted with caution, as a determination of whether the 2011 figure was statistically different from 2010 cannot be made under the applied methodology. In Colombia, cocaine manufacture was estimated to be slightly lower in 2011 than in 2010, as the per-hectare yield decreased from 4.6 tons of fresh coca leaf per year in 2010 to 4.2 tons in 2011 and, as a result, total production of fresh coca leaf decreased by 14 per cent to 263,800 tons in 2011.
For the first time, an estimate of coca bush cultivation in Peru with the reference date of 31 December is presented to improve the comparability of cultivation figures among countries.84 This estimate takes into account eradication that happened after the acquisition of satellite imagery, the main data source for the coca area estimate, and the end of the survey year. It represents the net area under coca bush cultivation on 31 December in Peru (62,500 ha) and is lower than the estimates interpreted from satellite imagery collected in the preceding months (64,400 ha).
Since the net area under coca bush cultivation on 31 December is a concept also used by Colombia, this devel- opment improves the comparability of estimates between the two countries. However, for comparisons with past years the previously published estimated area interpreted from satellite imagery was used for the global coca bush cultivation estimate to maintain consistency in the histori- cal series of estimates.
A comparison of the long-term trends in cultivation of coca bush and manufacture of cocaine suggests that the noticeable decline in the total area under cultivation that occurred between 2001 and 2003, which essentially deter- mined a transition between two relatively stable periods (before and after 2002), was offset by an increase in effi- ciency in the manufacturing chain from coca bush to cocaine hydrochloride. Indeed, while the estimated total area under cultivation in 2011 stood at three quarters of the level in 1990, the quantity of cocaine manufactured in 2011 was at least as high as the level in 1990 based on the lower estimate, with the higher estimate being equiva- lent to an increase of slightly more than a third. The cul- tivation and manufacture estimates imply an average overall yield of 4.2 kg of cocaine per hectare of coca bush over the period 1990-2001, and an average range of 5.1- 6.8 kg per hectare over the period 2009-2011.
Global trends in the main demand indicators
The latest estimates by UNODC indicate that 17 million people used cocaine at least once in the past year, equiva- lent to 0.37 per cent of the global population aged 15-64 (as of 2011). For an extended period, global demand for cocaine was dominated by two major consumer markets: North America and Western and Central Europe. Today, these two markets together are estimated to account for approximately one half of cocaine users globally. The extent of cocaine use appears to have been contained recently in both of these well-established markets. However, a com- parison of the currently estimated number of cocaine users with users for the period 2004-2005 (see World Drug Report 2006, United Nations publication, Sales No. E.06. XI.10), based on the information available to UNODC at he time, indicates a significant increase in Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America85 and the Caribbean and Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.26
Several factors may be contributing to the increased impor- tance of the markets of Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin Amer- ica and the Caribbean and Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Apart from the social, psychological and cultural factors that may influence the use of an illicit substance such as cocaine, one other factor that may influence the extent of cocaine use – or indeed the use of any other drug - is the so-called spillover effect, whereby the ready avail- ability of a drug, relatively low prices and proximity to source in production and transit countries may play a role in driving up its use. In the case of cocaine, this may apply in particular to Latin America and, to a lesser extent, West and Central Africa. The latest UNODC estimates indicate that, as at 2011, Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa collectively account for 6.2 million users (or 36 per cent of the global total).
Another factor which could determine changes in demand relates to the geographic distribution of the global popula- tion. The relatively stable markets of Western and Central Europe and North America account for only 14 per cent of the global population aged 15-64, so that even a minor change in the prevalence rate outside these markets can result in a major shift in global demand. UNODC esti- mates annual prevalence rates of 1.3 per cent for South America, 0.43 per cent for Africa and 0.05 per cent for Asia, all of which represent significant increases in com- parison with its assessment of these rates for the period 2004-2005 (respectively, 0.7 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 0.01 per cent). The prevalence rates for Asia and Africa continue to be low compared with the established cocaine markets, so the potential for further growth cannot be discounted.
A related factor that could drive the demand for cocaine (or any other drug), if all other factors remain unchanged, is the sheer growth in global population and the conse- quent growth in the number of potential users. Indeed, given the relative stability of prevalence rates, global popu- lation appears to be, in and of itself, a reasonable indicator for the number of cocaine users. However, the impact of this can be seen more in the absolute number of users rather than their geographic distribution; despite the fact that countries in Asia and Africa tend to have higher popu- lation growth rates than countries in North America and Western and Central Europe, the proportion of the global population aged 15-64 in Asia and Africa together stood at 74 per cent in 2005 and had not yet reached 75 per cent by 2011.
Annual prevalence estimates of cocaine use reflect in part the scale of cocaine consumption, but these figures must be supplemented with other information. Firstly, the avail- ability of data from Africa and Asia is limited, in part because cocaine use in these regions has so far been low and limited to a few countries and therefore possibly has not been perceived as a major threat; hence the correspond- ing levels of uncertainty are especially pronounced. Sec- ondly, changes in the estimates may be driven partly by improvements in the methodology of UNODC and new national estimates that have become available. Thirdly, the average per capita consumption of cocaine by users needs to be determined by taking into account the significant variation among different countries in the prevalent culture and changing patterns in the use of different forms of cocaine (such as crack cocaine as opposed to cocaine salts), in associated modes of administration (snorting, smoking and injecting) and even in the nature of the consumed product, with reports suggesting that cocaine is increas- ingly adulterated and cut with a variety of substances.
Cocaine use is often perceived to be more prevalent within the more affluent segments of society and the more afflu- ent countries. As discussed above, the extent of cocaine use may be influenced by numerous factors, and wealth may not be foremost among them; there are several examples of wealthy countries with low prevalence rates and less wealthy countries with higher prevalence rates. Moreover, for certain forms of cocaine, notably some forms of cocaine base consumed in South America, a typical dose is signifi- cantly less expensive than a typical dose of cocaine salt. Nevertheless, although these are macro-level indicators, a comparison of national prevalence rate estimates with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita suggests that, while a relationship between these variables is difficult to ascertain at a global level, within certain regional groupings, notably those with less established or developing consumer mar- kets, the suggestion of a correlation between disposable income and cocaine use may not be entirely groundless. More generally, such a link may possibly be observed within certain groups of countries that are relatively uni- form in terms of other relevant parameters, such as those of a geographic, historical and even cultural nature. If indeed an association between an increase in disposable income and the risk of cocaine use were to be demon- strated, notwithstanding the other contributing factors, this would again point to Asia, with several highly popu- lated countries registering strong and sustained economic performance, as a region exposed to potential increased cocaine use.
However, other socioeconomic aspects may also have a bear- ing; in the case of European countries with an established
cocaine market, for example, the human development index appears to be more relevant than GDP. Although the data is inconclusive, it suggests that further investigation of the relationships between illicit drug use and socioeconomic parameters may be warranted.
Comparing supply and demand
The long-term trend in the number of cocaine users world- wide indicates a gradual increase, driven to a large extent by the growth in global population. Interestingly, despite fluctuations due to short-term developments in the key countries of Bolivia (Plurinational State of ), Colombia and Peru, estimates appear to show that the total quantity of manufactured cocaine has kept pace with demand in the long run.
Short periods where the increase in manufacture appeared to outperform or underperform that in the number of users were followed by corrections in the opposite direction, so that the broader equilibrium between supply and demand was roughly maintained.
The shorter-term developments in recent years are less clear because of the uncertainty in recent manufacture estimates, connected with the introduction of alternative conversion factors for Bolivia (Plurinational State of ) and Peru. The upper estimates (which reflect the higher conversion fac- tors) would suggest that estimates of how much cocaine was manufactured remained approximately in line with global demand, even though the trend was for declining levels of manufacture in the short term; if, instead, the lower estimates reflect reality, it would appear that global supply has now been below global demand for a significant period of time.87 In both South America and Central America, when seizure quantities and the number of cocaine users are expressed as a proportion of the global totals, cocaine seizures clearly outperform cocaine use, in keeping with the role of these regions as source and transit regions. In the stable and well- established consumer markets of North America and West- ern and Central Europe, the relationship is inverted but the discrepancy is moderate, with the share of cocaine use only slightly more than double that of cocaine seizures at most (in the case of Western and Central Europe). In the developing and possibly the emerging markets, on the other hand, cocaine use outperforms cocaine seizures by far; in other words, the amount of seized cocaine per user is significantly lower than in North America or Western and Central Europe (see figure 54).
Trends in total seizures confirm the picture of stability or decline in the major production, consumer and transit regions, with pronounced upward trends being registered in regions where cocaine consumption has so far been lim- ited, notably East Africa, Eastern Europe, South Asia and East and South-East Asia. A strong increase was also reg- istered in Oceania, particularly in Australia, where cocaine use is already significant.
A shift in cocaine use in the Americas
Large quantities of cocaine continue to be smuggled from South America, notably Colombia, to the United States and Canada, with Ecuador, Mexico and countries in Cen- tral America as transit countries. However, the market for cocaine in the United States appears to have declined con- siderably, with both seizures and annual prevalence of cocaine use peaking in 2006 and following a parallel declining trend since then, with the exception of a rebound in cocaine seizures in 2011. The average purity of cocaine seized in the United States fell significantly between 2006 and 2009 at both the retail level (from 74 per cent to 47 per cent, for quantities of 2 g or less) and higher up in the distribution chain (from 84 per cent to 71 per cent for quantities greater than 50 g); moreover, reduced levels were sustained in 2010 and 2011, with only a slight rebound at the retail level (in 2011, these average purity levels stood at 52 per cent and 71 per cent respectively). Purity-adjusted prices at the retail level peaked in 2009 but as of 2011 remained higher than in the 2002-2006 period, even when adjusted for inflation.88
It is likely that disruptions in the chain of supply resulting from law enforcement intervention and other develop- ments, such as inter-cartel violence, contributed signifi- cantly to reducing the availability of cocaine at destination, with seizures moving closer to source (declining in the United States at around the same time as Colombia regis- tered an increase). A breakdown of cocaine seizures in Colombia also suggests that the Atlantic route has gained in importance in comparison with the Pacific route. Sei- zures by United States authorities along the south-west border increased over the period 2008-2011; in contrast, seizures in Mexico in 2010 and 2011 stood at approxi- mately one fifth of the peak level of 2007.
Brazil, with its extensive land borders with all three major source countries for cocaine, a large population, significant levels of use of both cocaine salt and crack cocaine and a long coastline affording easy access to the Atlantic ocean for onward trafficking to Africa and Europe, plays an important role in the global cocaine market as both a des- tination and a transit country.
In 2011, more than half of the cocaine seized in Brazil originated in the Plurinational State of Bolivia (54 per cent), followed by Peru (38 per cent) and Colombia (7.5 per cent).89 The Plurinational State of Bolivia, the only country among the three major source countries not to have direct access to the open sea, identified Brazil as the foremost planned destination for seized cocaine.
Brazil also reported an increase in the use of cocaine in the
general population. According to a study90 conducted among college students in the 27 Brazilian state capitals, the annual prevalence of cocaine use among college stu- dents stood at 3 per cent. The estimated prevalence of cocaine use among the general population is estimated at 1.75% and is also consistent with the trend of increasing cocaine use in Brazil.
Brazil is also a point of transit for cocaine consignments trafficked to West and Central Africa and Europe, notably the Iberian peninsula. It appears that the linguistic and cultural ties with Portugal and lusophone countries in Africa play a role in this phenomenon, as Brazil occurs more frequently as a country of provenance among indi- vidual cocaine consignments seized by Portugal than those reported by Spain. In the case of seizures reported by Por- tugal, the frequency of Brazil as the country of provenance also rose markedly from 2008 to 2009.
Developments in Europe
In parallel with the trend in the United States, cocaine seizures in Western and Central Europe declined rapidly from the peak level of 2006, and appear to have stabilized at a lower level. A similar trend, starting in 2008, was seen in the estimated average purity of cocaine, based on price and purity data from 14 countries in Western and Central Europe. Estimations of the purity-adjusted prices in these countries, however, suggest that the reduction in availabil- ity was not as pronounced as in the United States; moreo ver, the purity-adjusted price in Western and Central Europe remains moderately higher than in the United States. Prevalence data from some of the major consumer countries in Western Europe corroborate the general pic- ture of a decline in the cocaine market. However, other parts of Europe with a limited market for cocaine have shown signs of a possible emergence as consumer or transit countries.
Spain, an important transit and consumer country for cocaine in Europe, registered a pattern similar to that observed in the United States, with seizures falling steadily between 2006 and 2011, and the prevalence estimates for 2009 and 2011 also showing distinct declines. Prevalence data for England and Wales also showed a decline from an annual prevalence rate of 3.0 per cent among the popula- tion aged 16-59 in 2008/09 to 2.2 per cent in 2011/12.
Cocaine use and trafficking in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe has so far been limited. However, some countries in these regions have registered recent increases or fluctua- tions in cocaine seizures. Turkey attributed the recent increase in cocaine seizures to its role as a destination coun- try and its more recent role as a transit country. Reports on the provenance of cocaine in 2010 and 2011 from Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine, taken together, point to the possible emergence of cocaine trafficking routes overlap- ping to some extent with the established Balkan route for heroin trafficking and being used to convey limited quan- tities of cocaine to Central and Eastern Europe.
The overlap between cocaine and heroin trafficking routes may begin in Turkey, or possibly also closer to the destina tion, such as the port of Constanta in Romania. Austria has concluded, based on drug seizures made in 2011, that 10 per cent of cocaine entered its territory via the Balkan route. According to Turkish authorities,91 certain large organizations in Turkey known to have been involved in heroin trafficking in the past have shifted their operations in part to cocaine smuggling. In addition to seizures made at airports Turkish law enforcement agencies made larger seizures of cocaine found in containers and maritime ves- sels in 2011.
The provenance of cocaine entering Europe along this route appears to vary. Frequently, cocaine transits Africa before reaching South-Eastern Europe, and the involvement of West African nationals is common. In other cases, traffick- ers obtain cocaine directly from South America, frequently from Brazil. Limited but non-negligible amounts of cocaine have also been seized in the Syrian Arab Republic, Lebanon and, notably, Israel, which registered an increase in 2011; hence a link between this emerging route and the Near and Middle East cannot be excluded.
Another area of Europe that has shown signs of a possible expansion of the cocaine market is that of the Baltic coun- tries. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania each registered a spike in cocaine seizures in 2010. This included significant quan- tities being trafficked into these countries by sea. Reports suggest that some of the cocaine reaching the Baltic States is trafficked further to Eastern Europe and possibly Scan- dinavia. Based on expert perceptions, Estonia reported recent increases in the use of cocaine in its own consumer market.
An expanded market in Oceania
Cocaine seizures in Oceania reached new highs in 2010 and 2011, driven mainly by the quantities reported by Australia. In addition to the major transit countries for cocaine, Canada was identified by both Australia and New Zealand as a transit country for significant quantities of cocaine reaching their territories. In terms of the number of cases, the United Kingdom, the United States and Thai- land were also prominent embarkation countries among cocaine border detections in Australia over the 2010/11 financial year.
Australia registered increasing seizures across most drug types, so the upward trend may possibly be attributable to changes in law enforcement efforts rather than the avail- ability of cocaine. However, the annual prevalence rate for
cocaine use among the population aged 14 and over was estimated at 2.1 per cent in 2010, up from 1.6 per cent in 2007 and 1.0 per cent in 2004. This suggests that the cocaine consumer market in Australia has expanded, and there is currently no evidence to show that the increasing trend has stabilized.
Possibly emerging markets in Africa and Asia
Overall, the use of cocaine in Africa remains limited in comparison with the markets in the Americas and Western and Central Europe. South Africa and Nigeria have both had a sizeable consumer market for cocaine for some time, and both of these countries also play a significant role as transit countries. By 2007, West Africa had acquired an important role as a transhipment hub for cocaine trafficked from South America to Europe. Although the importance of this role may have since receded, the cocaine market in Africa may have grown more complex. West African nation- als remain prominent among traffickers and organized net- works smuggling cocaine (as well as other drugs) to various destinations. The routes from West Africa to Europe may have shifted away from flights to European airports and the northbound maritime routes along the African coast that prevailed in 2007 to land trafficking routes. The avail- ability of cocaine in West Africa and along the land traf- ficking routes may also have fuelled an increase in cocaine use in West and North Africa; over the period 2009-2011, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Côte d‘Ivoire and Morocco each reported increases in cocaine use based on expert percep- tions, and the latest changes reported by Ghana and Togo (relative to 2008) also indicated rising cocaine use.
The prevalence rate in Kenya, while probably still lower than in Nigeria or South Africa, implies a sizeable consumer market of its own, and there are indications that East Africa may have acquired increased importance as a destination or as a transit region. The United Republic of Tanzania reported seizures of 65 kg in 2010, a level which, although small, significantly exceeds those recorded in previous years. Although comprehensive data from the United Republic of Tanzania for 2011 were not available, the partial total had reached 85 kg by April 2011. It is not clear whether these quantities were intended for the consumer market in East Africa or possibly other destinations.
The provenance of cocaine in East Africa was also not clear, but in addition to West Africa, the Gulf region, itself a region with a limited but possibly growing market, has also emerged as a possible source. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have both registered increased seizures of cocaine in recent years. Uganda, as well as Poland and Thailand, identified the United Arab Emirates as a transit country for seized cocaine reaching their territory in 2011, and Yemen identified the Comoros as a destination. Qatar was also identified as a transit country by Japan, which has in turn increased its seizures of cocaine.
Among the markets with the potential for growth in the extent of cocaine use, that of East and South-East Asia arguably presents the greatest risk of expansion. Seizures in Hong Kong, China, rose sharply to almost 600 kg in 2010 and had topped 800 kg by 2011. According to authorities in Hong Kong, China,92 recent seizures included single cases of 649 kg, 567 kg and 147 kg. In 2011, an increase of slightly more than 10 per cent was recorded in the number of registered cocaine users, and there were 11 cases of small-scale processing to obtain crack cocaine (probably starting from cocaine salt). The Philip- pines has also seized relatively large quantities of cocaine in recent years, some of which was recovered from a ship- ment that was likely intended for Hong Kong, China. Thailand, a country with a large consumer market for stimulants (specifically ATS) but, so far, limited cocaine use, also identified the Philippines among the transit coun- tries for cocaine reaching its territory, in addition to Paki- stan, another country which recorded uncharacteristically high cocaine seizures in 2010. A recent survey on drug use in Pakistan confirms the emergence of limited use of cocaine in Pakistan.93 Despite these signs of a tentative emerging cocaine market, limited price data from countries in Asia does not suggest any significant increases in availability (although they would be compatible in some cases with a possible increase in demand), with the possible exception of Japan, where the typical retail price in 2011 decreased moderately between 2008 and 2011.
Central America: drug trafficking and violence
Cocaine has been trafficked through Central America for decades, but the importance of the region to the flow of cocaine increased after 2000 and again after 2006, follow- ing an increase in drug law enforcement efforts in Mexico. While the cocaine flow through the region declined mark- edly over the period 2006-2011, some of it was displaced to Central America, as traffickers looked for alternative routes, particularly along the border between Guatemala and Honduras. In the process, they often entered into cooperation with local organized criminal groups, which had long been engaged in a range of criminal activities,
including drug trafficking, extortion and smuggling of migrants. This development appears to have intensified competition between local groups and to have led to grow- ing levels of violence in some areas.
The correlation between contested trafficking areas and high homicide rates is most obvious in Guatemala and Honduras. Some of the most violent areas lie along the Honduran coast, on both sides of the Guatemalan/Hon- duran border, as well as in Guatemala along the borders with Belize and Mexico.